Enhancing Behavioral Realism of Urban Freight Demand Forecasting Models

Quarterly Reports Other Documents Final Report
June 2010
September 2010
December 2010
March 2011
This project was closed.

Primary Investigator

Jessica Y. Guo
University of Wisconsin – Madison
1415 Engineering Drive
Madison, WI 53706

Abstract

This project will develop a behavior-oriented freight demand model with improved sensitivity to policy variables and system conditions. The model will be implemented and applied to metropolitan areas in East Central Wisconsin. The model will also be evaluated against the conventional trip-based models used in the same study area.

Objectives

  1. To develop analytical methods of enhancing the behavioral realism and policy sensitivity of freight demand forecasting models to better support freight infrastructure investment and policy making;
  2. To develop a conceptual and analysis framework in which components of an existing three/four-step trip-based model can be logically mapped into and replaced by their counterparts in a behavior-oriented model that considers the complex logistic relationships driving freight movement; and
  3. To verify and evaluate the proposed behavior-oriented freight demand model against the conventional models.

Tasks

  1. Review the literature on behavior-oriented approaches to freight demand forecasting
  2. Develop an analysis framework and detailed analysis methodologies.
  3. Assemble data for model estimation.
  4. Code mathematical formulations for estimation.
  5. Calibrate models and test alternative model structures and specifications
  6. Implement proposed modeling system in CUBE
  7. Evaluate model performance
  8. Prepare project report and summary.
  9. Revise and finalize project report and summary

Project Information

  • Duration: 24 months
  • Dates: January 1, 2010 – December 31, 2011
  • Budget: $160,000 ($7,700)
  • Student Involvement: One graduate student and one undergraduate
  • Modal Orientation: Highway
  • Project ID: CFIRE 03-16
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