Optimal Investment Decision-Making for Highway Transportation Asset Management under Risk and Uncertainty

Available Documents
Quarterly Report September 2006
Quarterly Report December 2006
Quarterly Report March 2007
Quarterly Report June 2007
Quarterly Report September 2007
Quarterly Report December 2007
Literature Search
Methodology for Highway Project Life Cycle B-C Analysis
Research Summary
Final Report

Primary Investigator
Zongzhi Li
Department of Civil and Architectural Engineering
Illinois Institute of Technology
3201 South Dearborn Street
Chicago, Illinois 60616
lizz[at]iit.edu

Project Objective
To advance transportation asset management for optimal system performance. This study addresses two research items:

  1. Project life-cycle benefit analysis under mixed cases of certainty, risk and uncertainty that ensure consistency of analysis results for projects associated with physical assets and system operations
  2. Tradeoff analysis to examine the effects of spatial and temporal tradeoff scenarios on project selection results.

Project Abstract
Over the past two decades, state transportation agencies have developed management systems as analytical tools to support highway investment decision-making. These mainly include pavement, bridge, and maintenance management systems dealing with physical highway assets; and congestion and safety management systems handling highway system operations. The existing methodologies for project benefit analysis in these management systems maintain limited capacity of risk-based analysis of project benefits affected by factors such as travel demand and asset performance, but they do not handle cases under uncertainty. In the project selection process, existing models do not consider uncertainty of budget and other constraints. Furthermore, the management systems typically work independent of each other or only partially integrated. Therefore, they will at best provide locally opimal investment decisions for individual physical assets or a single aspect of system operations. The proposed research will develop new procedures that address the uncertainty and system integration in project benefit analysis and project selection using defferent tradeoff scenarios to produce truly global optimal investment decisions. The new procedures will be applied in a case study. The findings will be added to a graduate-level course in transportation asset management at Illinois Institute of Technology.

Task Descriptions

  1. Perform a literature review
  2. Develop a step-by-step procedure for highway project life-cycle benefit analysis under mixed cases of certainty, risk and uncertainty
  3. Develop a procedure for tradeoff analysis in project selection
  4. Generate a case study documenting the procedure application
  5. Final report

Primary Investigator

  • Milestones, Dates: Duration: 15 months, July 1, 2006 to September 30, 2007; Extended to: February 29, 2008
  • Budget: $82,104 (MRUTC => $60,000)
  • Student Involvement One graduate student
  • Modal Orientation: Highway
  • Project ID: 07-10